New Delhi, It is not just the weather or climate which is changing and playing havoc in a number of places far and near—around the globe—but the political and economic climate is also under heavy weather. The portents are predictable and unpredictable. There are shocks in store for many and surprises for all, but pleasant surprises for some as well. The doomsayers are in the stiff upper lip mode and continue to claim: we told you so, but you didn't listen. Now prepare or learn to live with the havoc nature is wreaking. The world is not yet topsy- turvey, but not stable either.

The political pundits are in the same sombre mood and no less sure about their worst scenario forecasts coming true and warning that rulers refused to mend their fences and are in for big shocks and likely to be dumped in good times and bad. The economic wizards are even more confident when foretelling about dire consequences of the devil may care attitude of squander mania displayed by one and all on planet earth. Yet the financial experts continue to promise the moon and good times to everyone with their sole purpose of getting you to write a fat cheque, say just about Rs.10 lakhs, or part with your money that they think will not go down the drain, but will earn you 50 per cent gain in three years. Since these financial companies deal in billions, a million odd rupees is peanuts in their calculations. You are just one of the many who has been persuaded, if not taken for a ride. But, if you draw a blank at the end of the three years, they will ask you whether you read the fine print and the risk factors in the investor document. They will be and they are sure, they did not cheat you, they only made a promise and if it goes sour, it's your funeral, if not poor luck. They have no responsibility. They only hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. That is the name of the game.

The monsoon has come to northern India almost two weeks ahead of time although pre-monsoon rain has been around most of May and early part of June and present trends go, the prospects of a bumper paddy crop are good, provided there are not unprecedented floods, which cause excessive damage. That could give the sliding economy a boost, though inflation may be hard to keep in check as several other factors are at work. If the monsoon weakens, and there is drought in several places, that could create a totally different situation because heavy rains in coastal areas and clouds vanishing inland are not an unknown phenomenon. That is why one keeps one's fingers crossed and one hopes for the best and not bad times.

The political climate in India is going through some dramatic changes behind the scenes, not always visible on the surface. The Communists remain naysayers. The Government proposes, but they in their wisdom and will are in no mood except one of divine disposal. They say they will not relent on the nuclear agreement between India and the US and India and the rest of the world because it would be against China's interest. The BJP reminds them that they are supposed to be an Indian entity and not Chinese. The BJP insists that its own opposition to the nuclear purely nationalistic because it does not wish to surrender India's right to carry out nuclear tests even though the US, Russia, China and most of the rest of the world have adopted voluntary restraint and do not carry out any new nuclear tests because they have enough weapons to destroy the world many times over. But does the BJP criticism mean that if ever the Communists bring up a no-confidence motion, the BJP will not go along with them because the reds are no longer perceived as nationalists. The Communists cannot bring up the issue of nuclear agreement, if ever it is finalized because the Government of the day has the sovereign right to enter into agreements and not seek parliamentary ratification.

The more significant fact is that the Samajwadi Party of Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav has shaken hands with the Government and promised to consider support to the nuclear deal on merits. The implications of this are that the SP does not any longer hang on to the coat tails of the Indian Communists, who have been deserted by the Forward Bloc in West Bengal for their repression on farmers in Nandigram and elsewhere with the result that the Communists have been routed in panchayat elections in the State. Even the Revolutionary Socialist Party is annoyed with the CPI (M) rulers, though they remain in the leftist alliance there.

Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav, whose party has 39 seats in the Lok Sabha, has gone a step further. He has met the volatile Ms. Mayawati and secured some kind of a reprieve for the Sahara group of business, which supports the Yadav leader in U.P. He is believed to have tried to build up bridges with his one-time arch enemy by asking her whether should be unwittingly supporting the BJP which had thrown her out of office in U.P. six years ago. She has been helping the BJP win a number of seats in Gujarat and Himachal and lately in Karnataka by dividing the vote and giving a clear edge to the BJP candidates. In Karnataka, the results were influenced in 13 constituencies and the BJP would have been below the 100 mark when results were announced and would have faced an uphill task in forming the government there. Whether this argument has gone home or not is difficult to tell, but it could not have failed to make some impact.

It is in this scenario that the United Progressive Alliance or UPA at the Centre does not any longer depend the Communist support to survive in office. It is in this light that the Prime Minister, the UPA chairperson, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, and Mr. Pranab Mukherjee now talk about signing the nuclear deal and reaching agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency and Nuclear Suppliers' Group. If these processes are completed in two or three months, the Government does not have to worry about the worst case scenario like the dissolution of the Lok Sabha as it can remain in office for six months until the next elections.

Source - NPA

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