The exit of a military dictator, who had donned civilian clothes only recently to be able to hold on to office, who had butchered his country's constitution and promoted fundamentalist forces in order to keep down mainstream political parties and made a mockery of democracy, is welcome. The fate of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the architect of Kargil invasion, who played a double game by nurturing terrorists at home and fooled the Americans into believing that he was their partner in the war against terrorism and extorted billions of dollars from Washington for services not rendered, was known for quite some time. Regardless of what the Prime Minister's National Security Adviser N. K. Narayanan, who suffers from foot-in-the-mouth disease, might say, Pakistan and its people will be better off with his departure, which was long overdue. They can restore their old constitution and vest all power in the hands of their elected government, conduct the war on terror with honesty and efficiency, restore independence of the judiciary and rebuild civilian institutions which Musharraf had destroyed during his nine-year rule.

Yet, the passing of one who had taken complete control of all aspects of life in Pakistan, manipulated politics and denigrated politicians and resisted till the last attempts to overthrow him has created a new situation which needs careful handling by the Pakistan People's Party and Pakistan Muslim League (N) combine which, though in power, presents the image of a set of feuding and ambitions politicians, guided by personal rather than the nation's interests. The Army having been freed from the control of a president-cum-Army Chief, could again pursue its old Kashmir-centric agenda under a chief who till recently headed the notorious Inter Services Intelligence, and gave a fillip to militancy and terrorism which a weak and divided government may not be able to stop. Remember even former premier Nawaz Sharif was, by his own admission, kept in the dark by Gen. Musharraf when he had organized the Kargil invasion. It is doubtful if the civilian government will be able to establish its control over the Armed Forces and ensure they do not implement their own external agenda.

It is widely understood that allowing the military and the ISI to play a dominant role in shaping Pakistan's policies increases, rather than curbs instability. By letting things go on as they are, the Gilani government too would expose itself to the charge of playing a double game with religious extremists, saying one thing to the international community and another to the domestic audience. They should draw a lesson from Musharraf who was accused by his benefactor United States of playing a double game, making a pretence of fighting terrorists breeding extensively on Pakistani soil, while nurturing them at home and ending up losing credibility completely and leaving behind a nation more fractured and volatile than over before.

Although this was nothing new in Pakistan's chequered and disturbed history, each episode of military rule has left the country more divided ethnically and politically and enfeebled economically. Even at this stage Pakistan's economy is in a bad shape, with inflation at 30 per cent, rupee at all-time low of 80 to a US Dollar and falling industrial production and foreign investment. In his last days, Musharraf had become more and more despotic and unscrupulous, had undermined state institutions, manipulated elections and destroyed the independence of the judiciary. His sacking of 64 Supreme Court and High Court judges, including Chief Justice Iftikar Chaudhury at one go, was one of his last desperate acts in order to retain power. He failed to read the writing on the wall and depended on the Senate (upper house of parliament) which he had packed with his PML(Q)cronies to block any constitutional amendment to reduce his powers and move for his impeachment.

He had also not realized that for the Americans who had prompted and sustained him all along, were also agreed that he was dispensable. During his recent Washington visit, Prime Minister Gilani had told President Bush not to continue talking in terms of receiving support from Musharraf on the anti-terrorism campaign, but now rely on an elected civilian government to do so and shape Pakistan's policies. The US has already brought the new Army Chief Gen Kayani on its side, which is natural for a force which has been part of the US-led military alliances during the Cold War era and has sustained itself mainly on generous American arms and aircraft supplies.

Gen. Kayani made it clear that the Army would, henceforth, not interfere in politics or bring the country under its control. To his former boss Gen Musharraf, Gen Kayani made clear that he should find an honourable exit because he had become extremely unpopular with the people and, along with him, also the Army. The only assurance he received was that the Army would ensure that he was not disgraced and prosecuted as he happened to be both army Chief and President and President simultaneously.

Fears have been expressed about the state of post-Musharraf Pakistan. The likes of Mr. M. K. Narayanan, whose unfortunate and uncalled for remarks were interpreted in Pakistan as endorsement of dictatorship and opposition to civilian democracy, feel that a power vacuum has arisen, which will be taken advantage of by militants and jehadist groups to intensify operations in Afghanistan and Jammu and Kashmir. It is argued that post-Musharraf era may prove more threatening particularly if the elected politicians start retreating from concerted action against militancy under popular pressure of anti-Americanism and threats from Al Qaeda and Taliban. Based on the track record of previous democratic experiments and the government's performance during the last five months, there are also worries that the elected leadership may prove unequal to the task.

But the other, and more realistic, view is that the civilian government should undertake the necessary constitutional amendments in order to deprive the President of extraordinary power of dismissal etc so that real authority vests in it. It should also be able to exercise effective control over the Army and not let it decide its own policies and do whatever it likes in the neighbouring countries in order to justify its huge spending. True civilian rule would end dual power centers in Islamabad, with Army bossing over the civilian Prime Minister, reduce duplication of work, strengthen the hands of democratic leadership and reduce the gulf between the people and the government which had widened during eight years of Army rule under Musharraf.

There are considerable worries on the anti-terrorism front. Musharraf hood winked the Americans and the world into believing that he was a fighter against terror and gobbled up billions of dollars on this account. It is only when they discovered the direct hand of the ISI behind the renewed Taliban invasion of Afghanistan, the bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul and heightened infiltration in Kashmir that they told Musharraf so. This was the beginning of the fall of Musharraf who was not considered trustworthy any longer. The elected government will be required to deliver on the terror front. There should be clarity of ideas and purpose on this issue and for a single power center it will be easier to fix responsibility. That will also eliminate complaints of lack of cooperation between the Army and the political leadership on this issue. The civilian government should arrive at a consensus among all political parties on elimination the scourge of terrorism, which has isolated Pakistan internationally.

As for India things are not going to change much, despite what the likes of Narayanan may say. I was only after Musharraf realized that the army approach to solving the Kashmir issue would not work that he began to harp on the peace process and, under American pressure, Atal Bihari Vajpayee agreed to inscribe Kashmir on the bilateral agenda, which Pakistan regards as the "core" issue. The new government has pledged to continue and strengthen the peace process and bilateral dialogue. There are indications of enhancing trade and economic interaction and increased Trans border movement of people and goods. At the same time, if the Pakistan Army starts to resume its old agenda of creating unrest in Kashmir through the ISI, it should bear in mind that the Indian security forces are there to foil any such designs.

The Pakistan government must remain united and Nawaz Sharif, who was originally the army's creation, should not rock the boat too much. It owes a duty to the people who are looking for security, economic recovery, social empowerment, genuine democracy and freedom from terrorism.

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