The NDA leader Bhartiya Janata Party is already in election mode and its Prime Ministerial candidate L. K. Advani, who is showing impatience in achieving his life's ambition, is embarking on his much hyped "Vijay Sankalp Yatra". The issues have been finalized at the National Executive meeting and all that remains is to mould the thinking of the discerning voter, reverse the tide and get a fresh mandate to govern at the Center. Conscious of enormity of the task is has undertaken and the many obstacles in the way, its leaders are getting more and more liberal with the use of invectives and unrestrained language against Congress leaders in particular, which betrays their want of self-confidence, considering the strength of secular phalanx against it.

A major handicap from which the Party suffers, of which the rank and file are fully conscious, is that its campaign is led by a person whose record as the country's Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister under the NDA regime has been dismal. He could not prevent the worst terrorist attacks, including the one on Parliament, not break the terror network, nor prevent infiltration of extremists form Pakistan or Bangladesh. People do not have such short memories as he and his cohorts believe and do not regard terrorism as a new phenomenon. Within the party, many are unhappy over his choice and prefer silence when coming up against muscle-flexing RSS and Bajrang Dal cadres. They chose not to attend the Bangalore conclave, citing "health compulsions", "personal reasons" and "prescheduled engagements" as the reason.

Mr. Advani and his colleagues do realize that the BJP alone is not the claimant to the affections of the majority community, which is not motivated by religion as they believe. The bulk of the voters belonging to majority community are voting for secular parties in larger-than-ever numbers and pushing the minority – bashers in to a corner. The BJP's rout in Uttar Pradesh proves the point and it has little chance of reviving itself there. Its main poll planks are: terrorism, price rise, inflation and "appeasement" politics of the United Progressive Alliance. Terrorism and minority "appeasement" are not new issues and reasons for price rise have been adequately explained and reasonably well understood by the people who know the government has little control over external factors since inflation is a world-wide phenomenon.

On the terrorism issue, the BJP is not blameless and is actually on the defensive in the states ruled by it and which are witnessing the worst acts of terrorism against the Christian community. While Mr. Advani and his cohorts are blaming the Government for not acting tough on terrorism by Islamist extremists, mostly Pakistan-inspired, they are mysteriously silent about terrorism perpetrated by the miniscule fringe of the majority community represented by the Bajrang Dal, Srirama Sena and such other outfits against the Christian community in BJP ruled states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Karnataka and Orissa. The Governments of these states have done precious little to check the vandals, who burnt down churches, orphanages, schools and houses belonging to Christians and killed several of them.

The UPA Government has been blamed for going after Islamist extremists and treating the Sangh Parivar extremists with kid gloves in the face of continuing attacks on the helpless community. Going after these types of extremists would have enabled the UPA Government to send out the message that it will not tolerate fundamentalism of any kind, Hindu or Muslim. It is under extreme pressure from enlightened civil society that issued an advisory to the BJP-ruled governments under Article 355 of the Constitution to ensure protection of life and property of the Christians under attack. This Article may have been rarely invoked in the past, but it is unambiguous in the duty it imposes on the Union Government to ensure that government is carried on in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution, which is not violated in any way.

Even the Supreme Court has ruled that the Article provides justification for measures to enforce compliance. The Sarkaria Commission too has stressed the centrality of this article before President's rule is invoked in a state under Article 356. One does not argue in favour of taking the extreme step, but the Center could force them to take action against outfits for which they nurture ideological sympathy, or face dismissal. The Karnataka Chief Minister has arrested the State Bajrang Dal chief, saying he will invoke the "Goonda Act", but has taken no other action against the vandals, close to the seat of power.

Even though violence against Christians still continues in Orissa, Chief Minister Patnaik, apart from seeking the help of Central Forces, has not taken any action against the Bajrang Dal activists, nor filed cases against them in the courts. The e-mail purported to have been circulated by Indian Mujahideen has accused the Sangh Parivar outfits of working against Muslims, Dalits and Christians. It has drawn attention to incidents in Nanded, Kanpur and Chennai in which Bajrang Dal and VHP workers got killed while making bombs. For whom and for what purpose were these bombs being assembled?

Another question is who stands to gain from terrorist incidents and whether internal, as well as, some external forces are joining hands to get rid of the UPA Government for their own reasons. It will be recalled that in the 1970s a group of foreign inspired Muslim outfits indulged in anti-Congressism by leveling charges against it and suggesting that the Muslims should shift their loyalties to Jan Sangh, the previous incarnation of BJP. It may also be noted that such acts of violence take place when elections are approaching, or some important development related to India's relations with Pakistan or the United States happen. The Gujarat riots in 2002 occurred in close proxity of the Assembly elections which the BHP won. Terrorist attacks on places of worship came on the eve of the Lok Sabha election in April 2004.

But the country was relatively free from such violence for more than two years after April 2004 when no Assembly elections were due to take place. Serial blasts in October 2005 claimed 58 lives in Delhi but they were linked to Kashmir-based militants. The "Indian Mujahideen" was silent between December 1992 and July 2006 when Mumbai train blasts took place, ostensibly to "avenge" the first anniversary of the Indo-US nuclear co-operation agreement. Violence has erupted once again after the IAEA and SSG waiver in India's favour and with Assembly and the Lok Sabha elections approaching. Observers ask if such violence is directed by the same master or masters with similar objective of bringing about Government change and helping the BJP in the process.

Their calculations are on predictable lines. Under pressure to act strongly against terrorism, Government agencies are indulging in large scale arrests of suspected terrorists, raiding houses and causing inconvenience to their inmates. This has given rise to an outcry that "innocent" persons are being rounded up and Civil Right activists have appeared on the scene accusing the police of unnecessarily harassing the members of the minority community. It is believed that more incidents and more arrests could create resentment among the minority community leading to shifting of its support from the Congress. It is not difficult to make out who stands to benefit from this type of situation. Interestingly Mr. L. K. Advani has accused the Congress of "appeasing" the minority community. Yet, in the same breath, he has quoted from the Sachar Committee Report to the effect that the Government had done precious little for the benefit of Muslims.

Whether such incidents of terrorism will help the opposition win more votes in the next election remains to be seen. But the BJP will be mistaken into thinking that the benefit will accrue to it. While some Muslim vote may gravitate towards other secular parties, such as, BSP and SP, other secular parties will also be claimant on Hindu vote, which the BJP will not be able to polarise in its favour. Over 70 percent of India continues to live in rural areas and they are unmoved by BJP's politics. In urban areas, the voters have become discerning, are no longer swayed by religious appeals and do not believe in extremism of the minority or the majority communities. There is a strong section within the BJP which is unhappy over RSS takeover of the organisation and will express themselves at the appropriate time against extremism and intolerance.

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