It is a catch 22 situation or a 64 million dollar question whether the United Progressive Alliance will win the day on July 22 or be defeated in the vote of confidence it seeks from the Lok Sabha over the nuclear deal. The Government and the Congress are confident that they have sufficient support in the House after the leftist parties withdrew their support. Its opponents are equally confident of bringing down the Government. Neither side is absolutely sure of numbers.

The BJP and the RSS have praised the CPI (M) and criticized the Prime Minister and the Congress for not abiding by what they call the coalition dharma as the common minimum programme did not contain any reference to the nuclear arrangements with the US and the rest of the world, forgetting that the nuclear issue was not in the picture in the midsummer of the year 2004 when the Congress-led coalition government was formed even though the BJP itself had initiated the process of negotiations in the prolonged and composite dialogue with the US during its tenure until it was defeated in the general elections.

The leftist parties, which have always regarded the BJP as untouchable have suddenly found them touchable in the political war they have waged on the government of the day. A new development is that the Bahujan Samaj Party, which announced withdrawal of support to the Government almost a month ago over inflation and rising prices, has now joined hands with the leftist parties in an effort to defeat the Government. Her unwritten and yet apparent understanding with the BJP does not come in the way of her new found love for the leftists. Has she become a sort of bridge between the BJP and the leftists, who continue to pretend to be anti-communal. Their targets are the Congress, the UPA allies and the new entrant into the ranks of the UPA—the Socialist Party led by Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav, whose chief lieutenant, Mr. Amar Singh, has been blowing hot and cold against Ms. Mayawati in TV news channels and in the print media.

Ms. Mayawati is trying hard to break the Muslim members of the Lok Sabha who are now part of the Socialist Party by pretending to be the new messiah of minorities and the Scheduled Castes as well as other backward castes even as the forward caste leaders, be they Brahims, banias, Thakurs as well as some Yadavs have joined hands with her and are advising her to play political games at all levels in the cow belt as well as in the rest of the country.

The Socialist Party has anywhere between 37 and 39 members in the Lok Sabha and it is not sure of three of its members voting along with it, but Ms. Mayawati is trying to win over seven more members from its ranks. What promises she is making besides offering them safe constituencies in general elections, expected soon, is unclear just as their defection is far from certain. Her animosity with the SP goes back almost six or seven years when the BJP was alleged to have "stolen 15 of her MLAs" in the U.P. Assembly and transferred them to the Socialist Party and stabilized its government in return of the SP not prosecuting the BJP leaders in the Babri Masjid demolition case of 1992.

The Congress is closely watching every move of what it perceives as the unholy alliance of diverse elements, normally inimical and even hostile to one another. It wonders whether the disparate elements will be ultimately bond together even on the day of reckoning that is July 22 or come apart before that. Meanwhile, the ruling party's swing managers are trying hard not only to keep its flock firmly together and drum up support for the Government from outside the leftist and BJP elements who remain uncommitted to the opponents of the Government.

Did Mayawati's advisers encourage her to try and bask in the glory of her enormous strength and being a key factor in pulling down the present UPA Congress-led government at the Centre? If she pulls it off, she will be enormously pleased with herself and will dream more than ever before of becoming the next Prime Minister of India. She will expect the leftists to crown her as the queen of the Third Front, which is quite moribund at present, but it does help to create some visions of grandeur. She may be in a little mess, perhaps of her own making, as the Central Bureau of Investigation, probes her allegedly amassing huge assets in cash, land and property, but she regards it as political vendetta of the rulers of the day at the Centre and expects to be let off the hook whenever there is a new dispensation.

Unwittingly, Ms. Mayawati, who pretends to be a foe of what she calls communal forces, finds herself thrown closer to the BJP regardless of her denials. Her pattern of setting up candidates in Gujarat, Himachal, Delhi, and Karnataka has helped BJP win more seats than it expected or bargained for. She may have had no option but to go along with an acknowledged understanding with the leftists and even an unacknowledged understanding with the BJP in future elections, no matter how much she may wish otherwise. How these mutually contradictory courses will affect her image, only time will tell, but she might try to engage in running with the horses and hunting with the hounds.

Her advisers may or may not remind her that the Third Front, of which she is not even a member yet, may not be willing to accept her as their top leader because leaders like Ms. Jayalalitha, Mr. Chandrababu Naidu and even Mr. Om Prakash Chautala may have their reservations on her mercurial temperament and her personal visions of majesty. They are indeed a motley group of defeated political parties with minimal strength and just now on the periphery rather than the mainstream of Inidan political scene. The hard-headed leftists may utilize her services but will they ever trust a leader like her who blows hot and cold at will and who can change colours rapidly, a woman who is paranoid about her own destiny to rule India.

She must be realizing and so would her advisers—the Brahmins and Banias are former BJP people generally—that she hastened the coming together of the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Socialist Party with the Congress. Mr. Amar Singh was closely watching the pro-poor protests of Mr. Rahul Gandhi in U.P. against Ms. Mayawati's failure to deliver on the employment guarantee and other pro-farmer schemes. The enemy of the worst enemy is a perfect fit for alliance. Ms. Mayawati had routed Mr. Mulayam Singh and company from power in Lucknow and he was looking for partners who would be a thorn in the flesh of the unsparing Ms. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party.

The youthful Congress leader's forays in the backwaters of eastern U.P. not only annoyed Ms. Mayawati, but pleased the crafty and wily men like Amar Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav. They have not hesitated to desert their Communist friends of four years or more and in any case they were initially roped in by Mr. Harkishen Singh Surjeet and not by the present leadership of the CPI (M), which appears to them to be brash and always shooting from the hip rather than engaging in the niceties or finer points of political games, much to their chagrin.

The Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, appears certain that he continues to enjoy majority support in the Lok Sabha and would be able to prove it at the appropriate time. That is why he has decided to go ahead with negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency towards the end of July and later go to the Nuclear Suppliers Group so that the 123 agreement could be considered by the US Congress in September before it breaks for recess prior to Presidential and Senate elections.

The Prime Minister appears to have the support of several smaller parties with three members each, but some parties with just one MP may also support his government when it comes to the crunch. He is banking on the support of both National Conference as well as Progressive Democratic Party or PDP in Kashmir.

In any case, he has convinced the Congress leadership that it is no use running the Government under threats and surviving from day to day by yielding to blackmail. It is better to face elections this winter and call the bluff of the unwilling and threatening supporters. If it stands up to face challenges, the largest party in the country will not discredit itself in the eyes of the people and voters. If the UPA tries to linger in office under threats, the fate could be worse than now, whenever general elections are held. It is being pointed out that the nuclear issue is not an emotive issue with the people or the voters in general.

The UPA enjoys the support of 226 MPs plus 39 of the Socialist Party, besides three of the Ajit Singh led RLD and possible votes of three TRS MPs as well as one Republican member. That makes up more than the minimum requirement of 272 in a House of 543, with two seats vacant. The Akali Dal, an ally of the BJP in the National Democratic Alliance, appeared at one time to be disinclined to vote against the Government but has since assured the NDA of its loyalty.

But there are clear indications that the Government does not wish to survive on borrowed time and receive new threats at a time when inflation is hard to control, when crude prices are volatile and more on the upward trend and even commodity prices, especially food, are rising in view of speculators making a fast buck and petroleum producers' cartel refusing to increase production or relent on oil prices.

EMAIL THIS NEWS COMMENTS No comments yet