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Experts question the method to calculate GDP September 2, 2010
New Delhi: The Indian economy has posted the fastest quarterly growth during April-June 2010 in the last two years. Stock markets have gained momentum after the crash in 2008 and exports are peaking.

Auto makers have also reported good sales in India with Maruti Suzuki selling over 1 lakh cars in August. Two wheelers makers, too, have reported record sales.

So is India shining again? Some experts beg to differ and say that figures don't tell the entire story. Is the methodology wrong?

"I think the methodology need to be looked into again specially from the market price rise angle. I am sure the compiler is looking to it and will do the necessary thing," says Kotak Securities Chief Economist Mridul Saggar.

Is it true that there is more demand than supply going by the growth figures, and has inflation not been factored in?

"The real puzzle is where is the fault? Are we underestimating inflation or are we doing some mistake in calculation of GDP?" asks Crisil Head & Senior Economist Sunil K Sinha.

But the Government is standing firm by its data.

"If you take the industrial sector and break it up, capital goods within that have been growing very rapidly and that is always an indication of industry's view of what is to come. When the capital goods sector grows very well you know that there is general optimism in the industrial sector and I think there is no two ways about that. There is another break up, consumer durables. Consumers begin to invest in when they are expecting the future to be good," says Chief Economic Advisor Kaushik Basu.

While it may be a methodological mess for now, with stock markets on one-month high, manufacturing and exports performing better, there is no denying the fact the economy certainly is picking up steam if not rolling.
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