(Feature)
It would be misplaced to assume that the dramatic Karnataka win will catapult the BJP to power in the next Lok Sabha elections considering the decisive rejection of its earlier “India Shining” and “Feel Good” campaigns.

With the blossoming of the Lotus in Karanataka the BJP lost no time in declaring that the party juggernaut was indeed on a roll, exuding confidence that it would have a dream run in the next years Parliamentary elections. And to make it doubly clear, the party General Secretary Mr. Arun Jaitley went to the extent of saying “the single most significant impact is that the BJP has now become the front runner for the Lok Sabha polls and the victory has given a pan Indian presence to the party”. Invariably the party sounds triumphalist, even to the point of being boastful, that Karnataka is just the tip of the iceberg and bigger battles are waiting to be won. This instantly reminds us of Goethe, who famously said “In all things it is better to hope than to despair”. Mr. Advani has already claimed that his party’s dream of returning to power in Delhi may come to fruition in the next year’s Parliamentary elections. For the BJP, Delhi is still far away. Yet, it is hopeful of regaining power in 2009.

The mood in the BJP is understandably upbeat. But frankly, there is no reason to misread the political trends by citing the Assembly poll victories as a “turning point”. While it may be true that the party has registered successive victories in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and now in Karanataka, it will also be premature to assume that the series of assembly poll wins was a sign that the results of the Lok Sabha elections will follow the same trend. Infact, the party is known to suffer from hallucinations of power. Optimists both inside and outside the BJP are conveniently forgetting that the party was haunted by Euphoria of a similar magnitude after the 1989 general elections when its Lok Sabha tally shot up from 2 to 86. At that time also the party leaders raved and ranted that there was no stopping the BJP’s return to power. It is a different matter that the same party was rejected in the May 2004 general elections with its grandly orchestrated “India Shining” and “Feel good” campaigns receiving a severe drubbing. The next three years were marked by factionalism and infighting that reached a climax with the party’s humiliating rout in May 2007 Assembly elections in Utter Pradesh, once a stronghold of the BJP. Though the string of victories may have helped the party to recover somewhat from its 2004 defeat, yet it is far from looking the frontrunner to the 2009 Parliamentary polls. One of the probable reasons that may have led to the back to back wins was more due to the failure of the Congress to connect with the aam admi rather than any sudden popularity for the saffron party. Moreover, the party’s tall claims of taking over the rest of South India is just a lot of hot air. The recent by elections in Andra Pradesh clearly showed where the BJP stood in the South. Despite giving the party two presidents, the State has given preference to regional parties as a viable alternative to Congress.

Undoubtedly, the BJP leaders seem to be on cloud nine following the electoral breakthrough in Karanataka. It speaks a lot about their fortitude and resoluteness that after being nearly written off, the party has bounced back within a span of six months with surprising agility. The National Executive meeting showcased a party brimming with confidence since its long cherished dream of forming a government on its own strength in a Southern state had been fulfilled. No doubt despite some years of disorientation the party has found its focus and managed to put up a united show notwithstanding serious differences between individuals and issues.

Four years of rudderless drift should have taught the BJP that instead of getting distracted by the excessive self confidence, the party needs to rise above the expectations of the State’s voters who have reposed their trust in its leadership. Needless to say, it is in this context that the shadow Prime Minister Mr L K Advani’s concluding remarks at the just concluded two day National Executive set the right tone. He cautioned his colleagues not to bask in their new found sense of power as the real test begins now and they simply can’t fritter away the chance of making their party a “clear winner” in the next general elections. In his valedictory speech the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate set the agenda for the party to embark on an election oriented action plan that combines unity, unwavering purpose and mass mobilization for achieving victory. “The challenge before our party and our alliance is to transform the reality from being a frontrunner to being seen as a clear winner,” Mr Advani is reported to have said at the National Executive meeting. “It is not enough that the BJP merely forms the next government at the Centre. It is extremely important that ours is a strong and stable government with the BJP having sufficient numerical strength that would enable us to pursue our agenda of good governance, development and security,” he added. The BJP veteran also reminded his cadre that in states like Rahasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh where they are sure to be hampered by anti-incumbency they need to tread with caution with the right mix of organisational unity, sound election management and good governance.

The BJP leader’s statement about seeking to reach out to the minorities is in a sense, a thinly veiled camouflage to cover up for the party Chief Mr Raj Nath Singh’s demands that the term “secular” be dropped from the Constitution. As it is, Mr Singh is trying to flaunt the party’s core agenda setting in motion an inevitable contradiction that the party’s core concern continues to be Hindutva despite overtones of moderation that have been adopted to extend its electoral reach. “Along with cultural nationalism, Article 370, Uniform Civil Code and true Secularism, we are committed to preserve national unity and integrity,” Mr Singh has said.

Indeed, it would be misplaced to assume that the BJP has put its ideological agenda on hold. Mr Advani’s call to the national executive for a broader NDA can be seen in the light of the fact that the BJP does not want to risk alienating its prospective allies in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections. On the other hand Mr Raj Nath Singh’s speech suggesting that the party’s pet issues were back on the agenda together with Mr Jaswant Singh’s denounce- ment of the formulation of a secular government in Nepal clearly indicates that the party has not changed its spots. Infact, it was only after BJP came to power that it decided to put demands for a common Civil Code and abrogation of Article 370 on the backburner. It was not a genuine change of heart but a tactical ploy to keep its so-called secular allies in good humour. It’s now on and now off dalliance with Pakistan, which at times created confusion, can be viewed simply as an extension of the same logic. When in power, the party gravitated towards a softer approach for its neighbouring country. But within days of losing power, it reverted back to its hard-liner approach towards Pakistan.

Does the Karanataka victory portend BJP’s return to power at the Centre ? Not by a long shot. The BJP’s Euphoria over the winning streak in Assembly elections is not misplaced. But surely it does not mean that the party is on a comeback trail. It is one thing to claim, as Mr Advani has done that there is no stopping the BJP’s return to power at Centre, but quite another thing to ensure that the party emerges the clear winner in the coming elections. For this to happen, the party is in dire need of reshaping itself, stemming factionalism and strengthening its organisational base. Otherwise, it will botch up its chances of defeating its rivals and proving its detractors wrong.

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