As violence in Mumbai and aggressive postures in Bihar as well as Hindutva front outfits and regional chauvinism cause anxiety and concern to the nation and pose new threats to the national fabric, it appears difficult for the rulers in New Delhi to try and restore sanity in several parts of the country. Yet, they have no option but to strive hard to press the States to restore law and order and ensure freedom of movement of the people of India and their right to live and work anywhere within the Indian boundaries.

There have to be limits to the sons of the soil protests in the New Millennium, yet the vote bank politics shackle the ruling outfits in curbing mayhem, especially in metropolitan cities, evident from roadblocks, burning and killing. In these times, when elections are not far away, coalition politics has once more become elastic and political alliances from reliable or durable. The sons of the soil syndrome is obviously contrary to the national ethos and global trends as people move across frontiers at speed to provide skills and run businesses. But there is little doubt that passions override logic and reason and rulers are well aware of this truth.

In spite of this scenario, economic issues and inflation as well as rising prices have added to the woes of the people and complicated the picture as the government tries to curb a downslide in many sectors. The Indian currency, still strong, has tended to go downhill and as the rupee hovers around a low of Rs.50 from Rs.40 early in the year, the gains of the drop in the international prices of petroleum get diminished by 25 per cent.

With the American effort to save nine of its big banks with infusions of $125 billion starting to flow before the end of October, there may be a temporary rescue for world stock markets. Another $125 billion is also in the pipeline from the US treasury to save more financial institutions and Government purchase of their shares to enable them to lend money to borrowers may shore up the Americans' purchasing power and have a ripple effect of optimism around the world.

Even though the Finance Minister, Mr. P. Chidambaram, and the new Reserve Bank Governor, insist that the fundamentals of the Indian economy are strong and protected from the trends of recession around the world, the Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, has admitted that India is not immune from the global slowdown and sooner or later, this country would be affected, stopping short of admitting indirectly that there is already a lot of pain and many industries are facing the crunch and in deep trouble. Before the Budget on February 29 this year, the Bombay Sensex was nearing 21,000 and the bulls were hoping to take it to 25,000, but the downtrend since has been so severe that the Sensex is now hovering around 9,000 points. Foreign institutional investors have already withdrawn $12 billion of their investments in the Indian stock markets and booked big profits.

On a single day, they took out as much as $800 billion, bringing the Sensex down by more than a thousand points. If this trend continues, investment experts admit that the Sensex might find a new low level of 6,000 points and when that is reached, they may well say that a lower level of 5,000 could not be ruled out. The financial institutions might be putting some money into the markets and even the Life Insurance Corporation and pension funds are being encouraged to invest in stock markets, but foreign funds' heavy withdrawals week after week hit the Indian markets hard. The perceived solid investments have suddenly become hot money outflows, which have been running away from India.

At the same time, public sector and private sector banks are unwilling to lend money to industries, which are unable to repay their early debts. There is a near credit crisis in spite of Finance Ministry and Reserve Bank asking them not to hold up lending; yet the banks do not wish to turn a blind eye to prudential norms and later face the music.

Indian infrastructure is now clearly in trouble, with inadequate coal supplies to power plants, leaving them unable to utilize their full capacity. Coalmines are threatening to cut off assured supplies to power projects, which have not even taken off the ground so that the existing plants do not suffer.

The United Progressive Alliance may have staved off threats to its survival in the few days that Parliament met in October and managed to have supplementary demands for grants approved, besides a few legislations approved, the present recess before December 10 is no time for slumber as politicians fan out to five States going to the polls in November to choose new legislatures. But the writing on the wall is there for all parties to prepare for general elections within six months, if not earlier, depending on who are the winners and losers in the elections in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan Assembly elections on December 8, besides Jammu and Kashmir a little later. The leftists may have been unable to move a privilege motion over the nuclear issue and engaged in running battles with the Speaker, Mr. Somnath Chatterjee, and may now be threatening a censure motion against the government, but will they join hands with their sworn enemies, the BJP, to vote together when elections are not far away?

They have already expressed their doubts about a no confidence motion because they have been able to count only 80 votes, taking into account their new friends of the planned Third Front. Or the DMK supremo, Mr. Karunanidhi, may have decided to hold in abeyance his threat of reviewing support to the UPA over the Tamil civilians' plight in northern Sri Lanka, but with Parliament not in session for more than five weeks and Sri Lanka's promise to ensure humanitarian aid and food supplies to those caught in the military action, the DMK might have realized that there would be little gain in raising political temperatures during the recess and precipitating a snap election to the Lok Sabha would not serve his purpose before the end of the year.

The Government is greatly concerned over energy security even as world oil prices have been fluctuating in a narrow range of $65 per barrel. But the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have now decided to cut crude production by a million and half barrels per day to prop up the prices further. The European and American commodity speculators may not allow the market prices of oil to rise much for a few weeks.

Though Norway, a major producer of oil in the North Sea, may not be able to sell oil to Asia, it appears to be flush with cash and has decided to invest $2 billion in Indian stocks. Investment in Indian infrastructure from the International Monetary Fund, Asian Bank and Japan is expected and this fact could turn out to be of benefit to the declining economies in the First World.

At a time of hopelessness, dismay, India is stilling looking for light at the end of the tunnel and a silver lining in the cloud.

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