Even as the Opposition parties see the ruling United Progressive Alliance cracking up and facing a number of internal contradictions, political and regional, pulling it in a number of diverse directions and the economy going downhill, the UPA is quite upbeat, not fearing a breakdown because the Opposition is a house badly divided and no binding glue to hold it together even for a day, but wallowing in murky waters of negative hope. The BJP, the leftists and regional parties point to the economic crisis that the rulers have created and have no policies to solve the grave problems the nation faces—financial and industrial downturn and massive job losses. But the Prime Minister, who at one time recently said that India could not escape the consequences of the worldwide recession, is now insisting that Indian economy is resilient and it could still clock 7 to 7.5 per cent annual growth. He points to the deep checks and balances in the system, which he put in place as Finance Minister in 1991, but the Opposition accuses him to trying to dismantle them, but failing to do so because they did not let him have his way. This is especially the proposition of the leftists who ask that if all Indian banks had been allowed to have 74 per cent foreign investment—which even the BJP tried to usher in but failed because of the Sangh Parivar's fierce opposition—most of the banks, including the public sector ones, would have by now collapsed: they would have been owned by the nearly failed banks of the US and Europe and those very banks could still come to doom if the governments around the world do not continue to bail them out every few months for years to come with billions, rather trillions, of dollars.

Even as the Government at the Centre is immensely pleased with the 123 nuclear agreement with the US and later with France and soon with Russia before the end of the year, it is heartened by the British decision to resume commerce with India after six years on nuclear equipment and materials, but consider applications on a case by case basis. The Opposition thinks it is neither here nor there, signifying nothing. They feel that the nuclear deal with the US is almost dead as the new President has his own perceptions like demanding that India must first sign the non-proliferation as well as comprehensive nuclear test ban treaties before any concrete steps could be taken. It is another matter that for almost a year, he will have no time to pay attention to India because his hands will be full with the recession that America faces. Besides, he might feel that the present government in India is a lame duck one and will remain so for a few more months even as he will take office after nine weeks. What the shape of the new government in New Delhi will be is a matter to be looked at and how to engage it are issues of no early concern and may be evaluated when the time comes some time late in the next year by governments around the world. Thus India and the US may be somewhat disengaged as far as the new Administration will be concerned, though some noises might be made by both sides during the remainder of the Bush era.

It is in the face of these circumstances and the apparent contradictions in the entire Indian political architecture of the nation that the Congress and the UPA appear to be somewhat smug and walking the tight-rope and not fearing a political crisis, but preparing for tantrums. They feel that the Opposition parties do not appear to be ready to challenge them for an immediate snap general election to the Lok Sabha. Few members of the Lok Sabha are prepared to lose the perks they enjoy for another six months even as Mr. Sharad Yadav's five MPs have resigned and their resignations have now been accepted by the Speaker. He hopes to try and gain some brownie points for his brand of Janata Dal (United) in the run up before the General Elections, though his MPs may not be pleased with the idea of sitting out in the winter. Mr. Lalu Yadav has also tried to collect letters of resignation of his MPs, and possibly MLAs, of the RJD, but he insists that it is the Bihar Chief Minister, Mr. Nitish Kumar, who should resign rather than the government at the Centre. Ever an easy going man, he is a man of all seasons and happy go lucky in spite of threats to his core constituency from all comers.

Even if the Communists have threatened the Speaker by repeatedly defying hin and even talked of bringing up a censure motion in the Lok Sabha in December, the Government appears to be quite ready to face it because they know that all parties want breathing time and space rather than have to travel up and down the country, especially in North India in the bitter winter that lies ahead when fog and smog will make commuting, flying and road or rail journeys far from comfortable. They would apparently let the government get done with the vote on account or lame duck Budget at the end of February and take to electioneering in March and April.

Why is this so? Because they would like to assess their prospects after seeing the results of the six State Assembly polling results and the downside of voters' verdict in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jammu and Kashmir plus one more State. If the Congress faces the incumbency factor in Delhi, the BJP appears to be vulnerable in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where it has been in power for five years and has not much to show by way of achievements.

How do the rival coalition alliances assess their prospects? They may pretend to be sure of winning, but that is the name of the game during electioneering. Does the economic slide in a gloomy world scenario put the UPA in a bit of a spot? Do the leftists and rightists have a magic formula or a magic wand to overcome the looming crisis? Could any of the new formations ride to victory? They may expect to defeat the present dispensation, but are they sure they will win? Are they likely to escape an unclear verdict, which may yield a hung Parliament, with no winners? Would it leave the Opposition, especially the BJP, in greater difficulties than now? Could the excessive dominance of regional outfits leave the national parties even more at their mercy than at present or during the past ten years? This is truly a daunting scenario.

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