It may be difficult to predict who will be voted to power in Jammu and Kashmir in the coming elections but there is little doubt that the political scene in the State has changed beyond recognition in the last few years. For one there is no fear of gun this time for the voters as well as the candidates. There have been no attacks on candidates or any threats issued to voters asking them not to exercise their right.

The instances of militancy are few as compared to the past and they take place mostly in border areas and relate to clashes between security forces and few militants who remain active. If there are still doubts about the turnout they are because of general alienation of population in Kashmir with the Government of India and the scars left by the controversy relating to allotment of land to Amarnath Shrine Board.

Yet another change to be noted is that traditional leadership provided by leaders like Molvi Farooq of Hurriyat Conference or hardliners like Sayeed Ali Gillani are no more leading the protests against the elections or the mainstream parties. They in fact now have to take orders from youth in teens who have taken the leadership in their hands. They decide if a call for Bandh has to be given or any action has to be taken. They also make sure that no militants can hide in demonstrations organized by them to give an excuse to police or para military forces to use excess force or defame them as agents of outside powers.

These changes were witnessed even during the agitation against land allotment to Amarnath Shrine Board when attempts by leaders like Gillani to high jack the movement failed and he had to tender an apology for his action. These youth in the forefront is a development which has taken the valley by surprise as no one is able to read their minds. An old observer of Kashmir scene tried to explain the development to me as a change in the mindset of Kashmiri people. He said in olden times youth respected old people and would request them politely to allow them to pass, now they ask old to move away in a rude manner.

Yet another change to be noted is that this time if voters do not come forward , it will not be because of fear of gun. As candidates are not being attacked as indicated by large numbers filing nomination. Even unknown players with little following like old war horse G. M. Shah and his son Muzzafar Shah have put up candidates for all seats. Same has been done by Bahujan Samaj party of Mayawati. The number of Independents is equally large. In the first phase itself 102 candidates are in fray for ten seats for which votes will be cast on November 17. One constituency Sonawari alone has twenty candidates in fray.

Some cynics go on to suggest that some candidates have been encouraged to contest by the administration as large number of candidates it felt would lead to better turnout of voters in the valley where the groups opposed of Kashmir accession to India have given a call for boycott. It is however conceded by all that if poll tempo is yet to be buit up in Kashmir it is not for the fear of the gun, but because of general alienation of population and social pressure. But presence of large number of candidates, the absence of militant activity will help in bringing out more voters to use their ballot in rural areas and in border districts like Uri, Handwara and Gurez valley. The polling will remain poor in cities like Srinagar, Anantnag and Shopian. .

To describe the situation in the valley, one can say that near normalcy is observed with people moving about freely, markets packed, eating places flourishing and few tourists moving around without fear. This changes completely when secessionists give a call for organizing protest in favour of the boycott of elections. The middle level leaders are arrested, top leaders placed under house arrest undeclared curfew is imposed. Police and para military forces are posted in large numbers, all approaches to city squares like Lal Chowk or Tourist Reception Center or areas where the officials live are barricaded.

The entire city becomes a ghost town with movement being restricted to officials only. Even those who want to take sick to hospitals or to attend to other essential work are not allowed to move about. One wonders if such restrictions will help the election process. As a reverse strategy was adopted in 2002 when all those in favour of the poll as well as those opposed to it were allowed freedom to move. Some may argue that situation is different this time in the wake of near mutiny on the issue of allotment of land to Shrine Board.

But a poll in seven phases will be free and fair in Jammu region, as for valley it will observe some close contests in border districts and in few rural constituencies. So all will be free to draw their own conclusions from it. All, however, agree that a new Government installed as a result of it will be better as compared to Governor's rule.

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