The fear of early elections is not acceptable to any political party as no one is prepared to test its strength in near future as such despite the noise and loud declarations, one can state with certainty that poll for the next Lok Sabha will take place on schedule only, that is, in 2009.The ruling coalition presented an election budget, but is aware of the fact that the sops given to middle class and loan waiver are not enough to win the elections. The opposition is equally in doubt about their prospects.

Both sides will, however, have to go for trial runs and get enough opportunities to test their strength when the elections are held for eight State Assemblies. While the Congress is hoping to win back states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka, the National Democratic Front essentially BJP will be hoping to unseat Congress in Delhi, Maharashtra and also beat the incumbency factor in two States under its control at present.

With outcome of trial runs so uncertain, the two sides have no hesitation in postponing the poll for the time being. In the meantime ruling party is hoping that some of the measures taken by them will start showing results thus confirming that the ruling coalition believes in working for common man or Aam Admi. The task, however is not going to be easy as forces beyond control essentially world-wide recession in general and in particular in U.S will make it difficult to keep up the present momentum of nine per cent growth during the last year of their rule.

There are many factors working against it. The stock market decline is there for all to see and is likely to be followed by decline in the property market. This was bad enough, but country will also face a serious threat from rising inflation which is likely to be fuelled by crude prices touching hundred dollar mark, fall in exports and rising prices of food grains which will be in short supply making imports difficult if not impossible.

At the same time, there will be growing pressure of rising deficit in Union budget as well as in States with Pay Commission recommendations which are likely to be announced within a month pushing up the salary bill of employees at the Centre as well in states rising sharply by at least 40 per cent. This plus the cost of loan waiver for farmers will lead to steep rise in deficit on revenue account. This in turn will give rise to inflation which is rising again having crossed the five per cent mark.

As such one can not help but warn that the Finance Minister who has called himself a lucky minister so far may be heading for rough times. He will no more be able to rely on buoyancy in revenues from taxes to take care of rising demand for funds and may have to resort to some unpopular measures to keep the economy from sliding down further. One of the options available to him is sale of loss making public sector units or at least selling or downloading some equity in public sector units. These measures have been thought of in the past also, but not implemented because of the veto power exercised by left parties. The Left will not change and the choice before UPA Government will remain a tough call. Yet another solution to give a boost to economy will be further liberalization of economy and making flow of foreign investment easier. This again will raise the hackle from friends in the Left parties. But fear is that when pushed to the wall, the Government may not have many options left for them and will have to bite the bullet.

In this context, an important decision will have to be taken regarding the Indo-U.S nuclear treaty also. So far the two sides have dragged their feet on the issue and are hoping that the final call on the subject may remain suspended as time is running out fast with present U.S leadership led by President Bush entering the lame duck phase in near future. But knowing the compulsions of building infrastructure if Indian economy is to grow, the ruling party may have to take a stand on this subject also as irrespective of the stand taken by the left in the time period left election will take place very close to the due date.

Moreover, one hopes that Left may take a more pragmatic stand on the subject if it realizes that its option of a third front is becoming more of an illusion than a reality. The Samajwadi Party, a key member of the proposed front has started looking for new friends and allies to meet the onslaught of U.P. Chief Minister Mayawati and is moving closer to Congress. Under the circumstances the left leaders will have to think many times before they join forces with Saffron brigade to dislodge the Government.

As such one can conclude that in days to come UPA will have to take some tough decisions. In case it chooses a path of inaction or escapism, its decline is inevitable. The alternative is to reinvent itself to live another day. The choice is not easy but will have to be made as time for buying opportunity is over and date of reckoning is approaching fast.

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