Having twice been Pakistan's Prime Minister and forced into exile, Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto has lately been living in a world of make-believe. Somehow, she was given to understand by the Americans that the next parliamentary elections in Pakistan would be free and fair and that Gen-Musharraf would create space for her re-entry into active politics and facilitate her becoming prime minister once again. In its keenness to retain Musharraf in his present capacity as President, as well as, Army Chief so that he could carry on the fight against terrorism and further its strategic agenda in the region, the Bush administration wants to bestow legitimacy on the military regime by giving it a democratic hue.

Behind-the-scene negotiations for restoration of civilian democracy for nearly two years have come to naught as basic differences persist over re-election of Musharraf as President in the army Chief's uniform, amending the Constitution to remove the two-term ban on Bhutto becoming prime minister again, formation of the neutral care taker administration at the centre and in the provinces before elections, appointment of a neutral Chief Election Commissioner to ensure fair elections etc. The loyalist Pakistan Muslim league (Qaid), which Musharraf had created out of nothing with the help of the Army and its intelligence agencies and by enticing MPs from other parties and making them ministers, feels terrified at the more thought of Benazir returning home and becoming Prime Minister and their sitting as minor faction in its opposition.

Musharraf appointed a rootless Prime Minister who lacks public support, and ministers who cling to him because, if free and fair elections take place, they see no prospect to returning to parliaments. Their patronage and money-making enterprise will come to an end. Therefore, they do not want to be party to amending the Constitution to facilitate Bhutto's election as Prime Minister, despite the many corruption cases still pending against her. Though the Army top brass would support a deal with Bhutto if it helped legitimize Musharraf's rule and in its perpetuation, the PML(Q) will have nothing of the sort. Unsure of his ground, a weakened Musharraf is in no mood to create more problems for himself by losing the support of even a captive party having to contend with a ruling PPP.

Another exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was offered no deal and does not want to compromise with a military dictator who lodged him in jail and packed him out of the country, on the intervention of the Saudis, who wanted to save his life. Following the lifting the ban on his return by the Supreme Court. Sharif was announced his intention to return home and lead his party in the next elections, whenever held. A desperate Bhutto now says she would do likewise but has kept the door still open for negotiations, with a lingering hope of an agreement with Musharraf taking formal shape. It remains to be seen how the military regime will deal with them on their return, because Musharraf is on record that none of them would be allowed before the elections are over, and they can do whatever they like after words. No doubt, Musharraf is being misled by a coterie of self-seeking politicians who may well live with a military dictator, who had enabled them to enrich themselves, than with a transparent civilian democratic regime.

If past experience is any guide, individuals and political groups can easily realize their ambitions in Pakistan, considering that people are deft at exploiting each other's vulnerabilities and selfishly taking advantage of any opportunity that come their way. Gen Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto are essentially trying to bargain their weaknesses. The negatives could make them political partners who make individual games but, in the process, provoke more political fragmentation. The political landscape is bound to get vitiated in the coming weeks and months. Confusion among the opposition parties take different directions on even the few issues on which there appeared initial agreement among them at the time of formation of the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD).

Pakistan's military rulers are not known to voluntarily surrender power and democratize the political process. They perpetuate themselves and do not shed power until they are forced out of office. Gen Musharraf can be no exception. He played havoc with the Constitution and concentrated power in the Presidency. He is not expected to dismount when he continues to enjoy strong American support. Nor is he expected to curtail his power and restrict his role and let a civilian prime minister run the government. With his Army training and firm belief in the " unity of command" as Army Chief, there is no way he would revert to the President's constitutional role, as envisaged in the 1973 constitution, or head of state without real authority, if powers to dissolve parliament and dismiss the prime ministers according to him whims are taken away.

By making the pretence of negotiating a deal with Benazir Bhutto, Musharraf has actually weakened her, particularly after rejecting most of her major demands. He seems to have succeeded in virtually detaching the PPP from the rest of the opposition. She did not even participate in the recent All Parties Conference held in London at which Nawaz Sharif, Naulalan Fazlur Rahman, Qazi Ahmed Hussain, Imran Khan, Asfandyar Wali Khan, Rafiq Tarar, Mahmood Khan Achakzai and other participated. The APC Declaration adopted in July said, among other things, that the military dictatorship had brought Pakistan to the edge of a precipice, that parliament had been marginalized and stripped of all power, that the military regime is incapable of holding free and fair elections, that their shall carry on the struggle for restoration of the 1973 Constitution and shall strongly resist election by the incumbent legislatures of Gen Musharraf as president, through "collective action", including the option of resignations from parliament and provincial assemblies.

The real challenge is how the leaders of different shades of opinion will be able to translate their agreement into a unified struggle against the military regime. Even before the ink had dried on the comprehensive Charter of Democracy issued jointly by Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif fro London last year, the PPP seems to have walked out by seeking a deal with the military ruler. The APC could have reaffirmed the same document, instead of drafting a new one, but Bhutto's attitude left Nawaz Sharif free to forge another agreement with the other opposition parties. But Fazlour Rahman's MMA does not oppose Gen Musharraf's re-election as president and would like to continue to enjoy the patronage extended to it by the Army, which made it possible for it to emerge as the main opposition in parliament and control two provincial governments of NWFP and Balochistan. Though Musharraf can get elected from the present assemblies without the PPP vote, he is trying to woo Bhutto to keep her party from joining others if they decide to resign en bloc, or abstain from the presidential poll, making it a hollow victory for him.

The General is not giving any assurances to Bhutto about changing the Constitution or facilitating her becoming prime minister once again and says all that must wait till he gets re-elected in uniform and elections are over. She is disinclined to trust him once he is back in power and has reinstalled his PML (Q) in office. However, all her efforts to seek Musharraf's favour will come to naught if the Supreme Court debars him from contesting the Presidential election in uniform or postpones such election on technical grounds. Even otherwise, any Bhutto—Musharraf understanding will have nothing to do with opening up of the political system and its democratization. It will only weaken and fragment political forces and strengthen the Army's position in politics and society. It may also affect the PPP's internal harmony and political credibility, because her party men have serious reservations about legitimizing military rule, which Bhutto is seeking to do, even while forming the PML (Q), Musharraf broke her party and made many of the PPP defectors ministers. She may be forced to do with an enfeebled party, as she cannot mobilize her supporters during an election on the agenda of supporting Gen Musharraf.



It needs to be borne in mind that too much backroom politicking and deal making can undermine the democratic process, as Lisa Curtis of the Heritage Foundation points out. Transparency, accountability and political choices are key elements of a successful democracy. Some in Pakistan have a "misplaced fear" that holding free and fear elections could somehow strengthen the fundamentalists. In really, religious extremism will be less likely to make gains if a credible election is held. The extremists were propped up by Musharraf to perpetuate his rule. He still plays the same and undermines the opposition and may well again succeed.

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